High Return Stocks

I am slowly adding $UPS due to it trading near a 10 year low right now. The high dividend, discounted price and insider buying are bullish indicators. Not to mention they also have over $4 billion cashflow. Aiming for $110 on my swing, but would love to add at a more discounted price if that occurs.

1. Undervalued with Strong Dividends

• High Dividend Yield: At ~7.5%, UPS offers one of the most generous dividend yields in its sector, providing steady income for investors. AOLInvesting.com
• Dividend History: UPS has increased its dividend for 16 consecutive years, reflecting reliable financial discipline.
• Payout Ratio: Around 94%, suggesting that most earnings are returned to shareholders, though it does warrant monitoring for sustainability.

2. Healthy Financials & Cash Flow

• Revenue & Profit: In 2024, UPS generated ~$91.1 billion in revenue and $6.7 billion in net income. United Parcel Service, Inc.Wikipedia
• Free Cash Flow & ROE: Free cash flow exceeds $4.29 billion, and ROE stands at a robust ~35.9%, underscoring efficient capital deployment. DirectorsTalk Interviews

3. Deep Value Relative to Market—and Its Own History

• UPS is trading at a notable discount to broader market multiples and past norms. One argument frames current levels as a rare buying opportunity. Scribd
• Analysts’ average price targets hover around $105–$112, implying 20–30% upside potential from the current ~$88 price. TipRanksStockAnalysisWallStreetZen

4. Analyst Sentiment & Targets

• Consensus Ratings: Wall Street remains largely positive—“Moderate Buy” consensus, with 40% rating UPS a Strong Buy. TipRanksWallStreetZen
• Price Targets: Average 12-month targets are $105–$112, ranging from $75 up to $133. TipRanksStockAnalysis

5. Technical Landscape & Oversold Conditions

• RSI Oversold: The 14-day RSI stands around 19, indicating strong oversold conditions that often precede reversal. StockInvest
• Support Level: Around $87.18 appears to be a meaningful support zone. StockInvest
• Divergence: Some technical indicators suggest possible rebound—short-term moving averages are rising, though long-term trends still signal caution. StockInvest

6. Management Confidence & Labor Stability

• Insider Buying: CEO Carol Tomé and Chair William Johnson recently purchased shares amid a steep price drop (~30% decline YTD), signaling confidence in the company’s prospects. Barron’s
• Labor Resolution: UPS has settled key grievances with the Teamsters union, significantly reducing strike-related operational risks. Simply Wall St

7. Risk Considerations

• Volume & Cost Pressures: UPS faces ongoing headwinds from decreasing package volume and rising labor costs, affecting margins. Yahoo FinanceNasdaqWikipedia
• Technical : Despite some short-term buying signals, the broader technical picture still shows Sell across longer timeframes. This is why I am buying in blocks at a time, will continue to buy if we see further dip but this is a long term play that I believe will see great returns.