After a lengthy pull back, shares of Nike are finally starting to stabilize and for the first time in months, the technical picture is showing constructive signs. Especially looking at the moving averages and how $KNE is sitting above the 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. $NKE also has an dividend date of Aug 30th, meaning we could see this walk up next week going into the dividend. For those looking to start a long term position this could be a great opportunity to start adding and even utilize covered calls to make additional money on your shares.
🔧 Technical Setup
Nike has reclaimed both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a positive momentum shift after spending most of 2024 below trend. The stock is now trading in the $77–78 range, and while it still faces a major resistance zone near $80, the price action has tightened and the short-term averages have started to slope upward.
Key technical levels to watch:
| Price Level | Details |
|---|---|
| $74–76 | Strong near-term support |
| $80 | Major resistance / breakout level |
| $86–88 | Next resistance (if $80 is cleared) |
📌 A sustained close above $80 would confirm a trend reversal and open the door to a deeper recovery.
🟢 Why it May Be a Good Time to Start Adding Slowly
Nike hasn’t fully broken out yet, but the combination of improving short-term trend and rising volume near support suggests that smart money is accumulating. The idea here isn’t to go “all in,” but rather to start layering into a long-term position as confirmation builds.
Reasons to consider accumulating:
- Back above key moving averages = momentum shift
- Valuation has reset after a ~35% pullback from 2021 highs
- Price has held the $74 support on multiple tests
- A break over $80 could trigger a larger move as technicians and algos re-enter
🔮 Bullish Long-Term Case
| Driver | Description |
|---|---|
| Emerging Market Growth | Robust expansion in China, India, and Latin America should help reaccelerate revenue in FY2026–27 |
| Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Migration | Nike now drives over 42% of revenue from DTC vs ~15% a decade ago — much higher margin |
| New Product Cycles / Innovation | Revamped basketball and running product lines, upcoming Olympics visibility, and women’s category strength |
| Share Buybacks | Management still has ~$12B remaining on its repurchase authorization — providing downside support and EPS tailwind |
⚠️ Key Risks
| Risk | Detail |
|---|---|
| Consumer Weakness | Still seeing softness in North America — any deterioration could stall the turnaround |
| China Volatility | Macro headwinds or geopolitical tensions could slow growth in its largest international market |
| Valuation | Even after the decline, NKE still trades near 30x forward EPS, higher than most retail peers |
| Failure to Reclaim $80 | A rejection at major resistance could bring the stock back to the $72–73 range |
✅ Bottom Line
Nike isn’t a momentum play yet — but it is starting to look like a high-quality long-term name that is coming back into favor.
For long-term investors, starting a small position while it holds above the moving averages and building on strength through $80 offers a very reasonable risk-reward setup.
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